Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 3.416957 4.009302 4.665504 5.445194 6.345168 7.350158 8.556262
2025-10-05 2.620656 3.449124 4.466720 5.802906 7.505016 9.594042 12.344896
2025-10-12 2.042337 2.960857 4.190652 5.944265 8.364771 11.569807 16.113276
2025-10-19 1.665342 2.623131 4.003226 6.112835 9.226251 13.615305 20.224087
2025-10-26 1.360114 2.307280 3.764066 6.131467 9.835336 15.347350 24.087882
2025-11-02 1.090047 1.980988 3.436357 5.937825 10.064503 16.512876 27.223107
2025-11-09 0.866518 1.680716 3.088188 5.637255 10.054028 17.272434 29.780191
2025-11-16 0.723548 1.490045 2.885501 5.535858 10.336120 18.503291 33.199569
2025-11-23 0.615673 1.341542 2.728808 5.482972 10.680086 19.856016 36.948521
2025-11-30 0.562199 1.288611 2.738388 5.732010 11.589000 22.271329 42.779966
2025-12-07 0.493046 1.188972 2.639331 5.753388 12.067642 23.957605 47.469870
2025-12-14 0.430668 1.091295 2.527194 5.728719 12.447116 25.490399 52.020348
2025-12-21 0.376563 1.003588 2.425796 5.719783 12.874561 27.195270 57.151585
2025-12-28 0.366516 1.019735 2.555914 6.230041 14.444965 31.312637 67.431102
2026-01-04 0.335751 0.977932 2.547214 6.430062 15.380005 34.254588 75.668426
2026-01-11 0.308381 0.939161 2.538962 6.629019 16.336190 37.337574 84.501946
2026-01-18 0.275143 0.877171 2.463175 6.655257 16.903511 39.654568 91.957119
2026-01-25 0.235555 0.788067 2.302822 6.448278 16.899275 40.728055 96.846214
2026-02-01 0.197069 0.692897 2.108956 6.124307 16.568663 41.033907 100.069676
2026-02-08 0.172278 0.634140 2.003641 6.014987 16.749849 42.518285 106.080106
2026-02-15 0.152538 0.586946 1.922469 5.957920 17.054614 44.319000 112.987752
2026-02-22 0.145003 0.579366 1.956220 6.227033 18.241638 48.341712 125.482567
2026-03-01 0.131200 0.546352 1.907073 6.250139 18.774106 50.818544 134.499233